Bernstein Predicts $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035—10X Its Original Forecast
Summary
Bernstein sharply raised its prediction-markets outlook, now expecting annual trading volume to reach $10 trillion by 2035, up from a $410 billion estimate for 2026 and far above its prior 2030 forecast. It sees volume compounding about 70% a year, with growth driven less by sports and more by financial contracts tied to crypto, stocks, commodities, and new KPI markets. Sports, which were 61% of volume in 2025, are projected to fall to 38% by 2035, while financial assets rise to 49% and become the largest category. Kalshi is gaining share, with crypto and commodities surging on its platform. Bernstein also sees regulatory clarity and tokenization expanding the market, though U.S. sports rules may not be settled until 2027–2028.
