Bitcoin broke away from AI stocks but now $96 oil could turn its escape into a trap
Bitcoin’s second-quarter market behavior shifted away from equities and toward precious metals. Its daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 and with the Nasdaq to 0.21, while its correlation rose to 0.57 with gold and 0.63 with silver. On-chain data also showed a move from correction toward accumulation, with older coins largely dormant and short-term supply at multi-year lows. The main driver is now the real-rate and dollar channel: Bitcoin and gold fell together under a firmer dollar and hawkish Fed. That means AI-stock weakness only helps Bitcoin if it lowers yields and weakens the dollar; if inflation, tariffs, or energy costs keep yields high, Bitcoin can fall with tech and metals. The next quarter hinges on inflation and oil. A decline in crude and Treasury yields would support Bitcoin alongside gold and silver, while sustained high energy prices would keep pressure on all three. ETF flows have recently improved, with a short streak of inflows suggesting demand may be stabilizing.
