Bitcoin ETF buyers are trend followers, not setters, DWF Labs says
Summary
DWF Labs analyzed 694 trading days since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and found ETF flows generally followed Bitcoin’s price rather than predicted it. Investors withdrew funds in seven of eight declines of at least 15%, while all nine comparable rallies saw inflows. Flows correlated 0.54 with price moves over the prior five sessions but only 0.03 with the following five. The analysis could not identify whether institutions or retail investors drove selling, and estimated about a fifth of flows may have been hedged. Bitcoin sell-offs have become less frequent and gradual, though their median loss remains similar to earlier periods; DWF cautioned that declining volatility predated ETF launches.
