Bitcoin Has Entered a Bear Market, Say Analysts—Here's Why
Bitcoin demand has weakened recently, with ETF holdings declining, large investors accumulating slower, and derivatives markets softening, according to CryptoQuant. Spot demand fell below long-term trend in early October, historically a bear market signal. Three major demand waves since 2023—driven by the U.S. spot ETF launch, Trump’s election win, and treasury company accumulation—have lost momentum, suggesting most of this cycle's growth is over and price pressure remains downward. Currently, Bitcoin trades just above $88,000, down 30% from its October record above $126,000. U.S. spot ETFs turned net sellers in Q4 2025, offloading 24,000 BTC ($2.12 billion), reversing sharp gains from Q4 2024. Growth among addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC has also fallen below trend, echoing patterns before the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin’s price has dipped below its 365-day moving average, a threshold tied to market cycle shifts. CryptoQuant projects a potential cycle low at $56,000, with support near $70,000, highlighting continued risk despite some analysts’ more bullish long-term views.
