Bitcoin in Focus as Stock and Options Contracts Expire on Friday

Summary

Bitcoin is trading flat and remains below $90,000 as traders monitor potential impacts from the U.S. stock market’s quarterly "Witching Friday" derivatives expiry, which often generates volatility across asset classes. This week, markets face overlapping macro factors, including the U.S. nonfarm payroll data and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, all influencing liquidity and risk sentiment. The triple witching event can indirectly affect Bitcoin, primarily through shifts in equity risk appetite, given its increasing correlation with the Nasdaq and institutional participation. Historical data show mixed crypto responses to past witchings. Current market signals—such as a defensive put-call ratio, inconsistent ETF flows, low holiday liquidity, and global rate uncertainty—exert additional pressure. Concerns about AI-driven spending in equities also constrain upside potential for risk assets. The December 26 Bitcoin options expiry, involving over $13.3 billion, is considered the more significant near-term event for crypto markets. Year-end institutional portfolio rebalancing may prompt risk reduction and temporary selling in Bitcoin. Analysts expect choppy trading and possible late-session volatility, with the greater price test likely during the December 26 expiry. Market sentiment remains optimistic for a rise towards $100,000.