Bitcoin may have bottomed before its traditional cycle low: Grayscale’s Pandl
Grayscale says Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the usual four-year cycle, implying a possible low already reached or coming by September–October. Its research argues Bitcoin is increasingly a macro-driven asset, with Fed rate policy and economic growth now the main drivers. If the Fed skips further hikes and growth stays resilient, the price may already have turned. The next Fed decision is July 29, with markets leaning toward no change. Earlier-cycle signals also point to a bottom: more than half of Bitcoin supply has been held at a loss, and long-term holder balances are at record highs. Still, regulatory uncertainty could cap gains if the CLARITY Act stalls and treasury firms deleverage. Some analysts expect a much later bottom, even into late 2026.
