Bitcoin Options Traders Expect Quiet—But On-Chain Data Suggests Chaos
Summary
Bitcoin Options traders are currently pricing in low implied volatility, while on-chain data indicates a potential for increased price swings. The Realized Supply Density metric shows significant accumulation around the current spot price, suggesting that even small price changes could lead to amplified market reactions and heightened volatility risk. Despite this, the At-The-Money Implied Volatility (ATM IV) has been declining across all major expiration timeframes, indicating that traders do not anticipate high volatility in the near term. Historically, such low volatility expectations have preceded periods of increased volatility. Bitcoin is trading at approximately $108,800, reflecting a 3.5% increase over the past week.
