Bitcoin rally now depends on one Fed document coming Wednesday
Bitcoin’s rebound hinges on Wednesday’s Fed minutes from the June 16–17 meeting. Traders have been betting that softer US labor data will limit further hawkishness, helping drive BTC about 11% higher from its July 1 low to around $64,000. The June jobs report showed only 57,000 payroll gains, with prior months revised down, prompting markets to delay rate-hike expectations. The key question is whether Fed officials had already discussed labor-market weakness, credit strain, or the risk of overtightening. If so, the rally gets support; if the minutes emphasize persistent inflation and another hike, Bitcoin’s bounce looks fragile and could reverse. ETF flows and market positioning add caution: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw one strong inflow day after heavy outflows, whale deposits to exchanges rose, and options gamma is concentrated near $60,000–$62,000. Holding above $62,000 would preserve the recovery; a drop toward $58,000 would signal a failed bounce.
