Bitcoin Signals Turning Point—But No Clear Bottom Yet, Experts Say
Bitcoin’s current on-chain indicators—including Long-Term Holder (LTH) capitulation, MVRV, and NUPL—are signaling indecision, positioned between a typical mid-cycle correction and a full market reset. LTHs have not reached loss margins historically seen at bear market bottoms, and MVRV Z-score has not yet hit its oversold range. NUPL is close to breakeven, still well above the typical loss levels seen at durable bottoms. Analysts note that Bitcoin has not confirmed a macro bottom, with tight liquidity and continued sensitivity to macroeconomic data. Major financial institutions expect further downside, potentially as low as $50,000–$58,000, especially if inflation comes in above expectations. Despite severe fear in the market and institutional deleveraging, there is no evidence of industry-wide collapse like in 2022. Large inflows into accumulation addresses and a rapid rebound near $60,000 suggest institutional support at that level. With the MVRV Z-score at 1.2, Bitcoin is trading near deep value and may have limited downside below the $55,000 realized cost basis.
