Meta wants in on prediction markets – has it learned anything from the metaverse?
Meta is reportedly building Arena, a points-based prediction market app for politics, sports, and world events. The move contrasts sharply with its metaverse strategy, which has burned nearly $90 billion in Reality Labs losses while producing limited traction. Prediction markets already have real demand: Kalshi and Polymarket have driven huge trading volume, and the sector is attracting mainstream platforms and analysts. Meta’s advantage is distribution: its apps reach 3.56 billion daily users, and it has repeatedly copied successful formats and scaled them through reach. Arena could expand forecasting to a mass audience if it stays a social, points-based layer rather than a real-money market. The risk is regulatory and reputational. Prediction markets involve elections, financial incentives, and insider-trading concerns, while Meta already faces skepticism from its Libra/Diem failure and misinformation history. A consumer-friendly forecasting game may reduce early scrutiny, but trust could become the decisive obstacle if Arena grows.
