New CFTC Rules on Prediction Markets Would Ban Wagers on Ouster of US Enemies
The CFTC proposed new rules for prediction markets that would ban many controversial contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The rules would block bets on when political leaders leave office if the outcome could involve war or assassination, closing loopholes used for vague “out of office” markets tied to foreign leaders. Such markets would only be allowed if resolution depended on non-violent outcomes like election defeat, resignation, constitutional removal, negotiated departure, or natural death. The proposal also limits sports-related contracts seen as easy to manipulate or against the public interest, including bets on player injuries, referee calls, specific plays or fouls, and player fights. At the same time, the CFTC says broader sports outcome markets may still be permissible. The rules are now open for a 45-day comment period.
