Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike
Summary
Prediction markets sharply increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of the July FOMC meeting. On Polymarket, “no change” dropped to 73.25% while a 25-basis-point hike rose to 26.65%; Myriad showed a similar split near 74% no change and 27% hike. Fed-funds futures were even more hawkish, pricing a 37.6% chance of an increase. The Fed held rates steady in June, saying inflation remained elevated, but June inflation later cooled to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, giving policymakers room to wait. The Fed meets July 28–29 and announces its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on July 29.
