Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September
Prediction markets are broadly aligned that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its September meeting. Polymarket prices a no-change outcome at 74%, Kalshi at 73.5%, and Myriad at about 71%, with only small odds assigned to a hike or cut. The consensus reflects expectations that the Fed will avoid moving the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs and risk appetite across markets. Higher rates tend to favor safer assets and pressure speculative ones; cuts usually support risk assets like stocks and crypto. Recent market behavior has tracked these expectations, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reacting to Fed decisions and weaker rate-cut hopes. The Fed last held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a split vote, and the next FOMC meeting is set for September 15–16, with the statement due September 16.
