Markets Confident OpenAI Releases Its Next AI Model in Weeks
Prediction markets expect OpenAI’s next model, Astra/GPT-6, to arrive soon despite OpenAI delaying it on August 7 over cybersecurity concerns. OpenAI said internal tests showed major advances in agentic coding and cyber capabilities and that it could not rule out “critical cyber capabilities” under its safety framework. On Polymarket, traders put a 59% chance on release by September 15 and about 72% by September 30, with the most likely week still in early September. Myriad traders also favor a late-September deadline, though with lower confidence. The split between OpenAI’s caution and market optimism is notable but not unusual, since AI launch-date markets are highly active and have previously assigned even higher odds to a September release.
