As Bitcoin breaches $66K its latest bottom signal trapped buyers in a 20% loss
Bitcoin has rebounded from its June 30 low near $58,500 to around $66,000, but positioning still shows mixed sentiment. Put options remain much pricier than calls, with one-month put-call skew at 11.4 percentage points, high but not extreme versus past cycle bottoms. Historical data shows this 10–15 point range has led to weak medium-term returns, while readings above 15 have marked stronger fear-driven setups. Perpetual futures funding has turned positive again, showing leveraged long demand has returned, though it remains below crowded bullish levels. Spot trading volume is subdued, and US-listed spot Bitcoin ETPs have still seen large net outflows recently. With the Fed meeting on July 28–29 likely to be a hold, Bitcoin’s next move may depend on whether the rebound holds through that macro event. A stronger bull case would mean lower hedging costs, steady funding, and firmer spot demand; a bear case would mean renewed selling, heavier downside hedging, and a retest of the June low.
