It's the Start of Uptober. Will Bitcoin Live Up to It?
Bitcoin begins October around $83,823 after a volatile September that ended up positive, though not record-breaking. October is traditionally strong for crypto, with Bitcoin historically benefiting from “Uptober” seasonality, but last year was an exception. This year’s macro backdrop is mixed: the Fed raised rates in September, bond yields hit 52-week highs, and higher yields compete with non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Stocks also weakened in September, though inflation data came in cooler than expected. Supportive factors include strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which recently added billions before a brief outflow day. Prediction markets are relatively cautious, pricing a high chance of BTC staying near current levels and limited odds of a major breakout. Technically, Bitcoin still looks bullish: trend indicators favor buyers, the short-term moving average remains above the long-term one, and momentum is positive but not overheated. Key October events include jobs data, CPI, Fed minutes, and the Fed decision.
